A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Murphy USA (MUSA Quick QuoteMUSA - Free Report) . Shares have added about 5.9% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Murphy USA due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Murphy USA Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Murphy USA Q3 Earnings Top Estimates as Merchandise Shines

Motor fuel retailer Murphy USA announced third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $7.25, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.60 and compared favorably with the year-ago profit of $7.20. The outperformance was primarily on the back of higher merchandise results.

However, Murphy USA’s operating revenues of $5.1 billion fell 2.5% year over year and missed the consensus mark by $104 million due to lower-than-expected petroleum product sales.

Revenues from petroleum product sales came in at $3.9 billion, well below our estimate of $4.2 billion and down 4.8% from the third quarter of 2024. On the other hand, merchandise sales, at $1.1 billion, were up 3.7% year over year.  

Key Takeaways

MUSA’s total fuel contribution dropped 4.8% year over year to $384.8 million due to lower retail contribution and margin contraction. Total fuel contribution (including retail fuel margin plus product supply and wholesale results) came in at 30.7 cents per gallon, down 5.8% from the third quarter of 2024

Retail fuel contribution fell 10.4% year over year to $354.5 million as margins narrowed to 28.3 cents per gallon from 31.9 cents in the corresponding period of 2024. Retail gallons improved 1.2% from the year-ago period to 1,254.3 million and beat our estimate of 1,233 million. Volumes on an SSS basis (or fuel gallons per store) deteriorated 1.4% from the third quarter of 2024 to 241.7 thousand.

Contribution from Merchandise was up 11.2% to $241.2 million on higher sales, while unit margins increased to 21.5% from 20% a year ago. On an SSS basis, total merchandise contribution improved 8.3% year over year, primarily due to 18% higher nicotine margins. Moreover, merchandise sales edged up 0.7% on an SSS basis, due to a gain in nicotine as well as non-nicotine sales.

The company’s monthly fuel gallons fell 1.8% from the prior-year period, but merchandise sales increased 1% on an average per-store monthly basis.

Balance Sheet

As of Sept. 30, Murphy USA — which opened eight new retail locations in the quarter and closed two outlets to take its store count to 1,772 — had cash and cash equivalents of $42.8 million and long-term debt (including lease obligations) of $2.2 billion, with a debt-to-capitalization of 80.3%.

During the quarter, MUSA bought back shares worth $221.4 million.

New Buyback Authorization and Dividend Hike

Murphy USA board authorized a new $2 billion share repurchase program effective after completion of the current $1.5 billion plan (with $337 million remaining), expiring Dec. 31, 2030. It also declared a quarterly dividend of 63 cents per share ($2.52 annualized), marking a 19% increase from the Q3 2025 dividend.                                                       

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision flatlined during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, Murphy USA has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Murphy USA has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.